Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KFFC 061542 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1042 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. WILL ALSO
UPDATE POPS...INCREASING THEM NORTH AND DECREASING THEM A TAD
SOUTH. SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO KEEP
THEM ON TRACK...AND WILL ALSO SEND AN UPDATE TO THE FLOOD WATCH TO
REFRESH WORDING. ALREADY SEEING PROBLEMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH
THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND DESPITE THE BRIEF LULL THERE IS
MORE TO COME.
HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR
IS IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG LLJ MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. 60+KT AT 850MB WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
THE FRONT AROUND SUNSET AND IF ANY OF THAT TRANSFERS TO THE
SURFACE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH THE SHEAR
SMALL QLCS SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON THIS IN THE
AFTERNOON AFD.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUMB EXTENDING
FROM THE THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PLUMB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS OVER N GA
AT THE MOMENT AND STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH GA/FL IS KEEPING THIS FRONT FROM MOVING. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN SOME ARES. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. BY LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA. IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD THAT THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND NW
GA. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
CAPES AND LIFTED INDICES ARE VERY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE
IS A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA...THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME OF THESE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE CAUSING SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DUE
DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
COULD RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONCE THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM CLEARS THE ARE WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THU THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL MEAN
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO COME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
PRECIP SYSTEM IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOE NOW. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION...
SO FAR CIGS HOLDING IN THE MVFR RANGE MOST PLACES WITH VSBYS 5 MILES
OR BETTER. AM WATCHING AN AREA OF IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA
..WHICH MAY WORK INTO THE CSG/MCN AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO KEEP CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 THSD FT
RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 3 THSD
FT RANGE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN RAIN AREA
CONTINUING TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...MAY ONLY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE THIS MORNING BEFORE GETTING BACK INTO
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. RISK OF THUNDER LOOKS
MINIMAL...AND BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY
THUNDER MOST PLACES DURING THE EVENING...ENDING WITH FROPA WHICH
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 06Z IN ATL AND BY 12Z ELSEWHERE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS THIS
MORNING...AND PLAN TO INCREASE POSSIBLE GUST TO 25 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GOING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 52 56 36 54 / 70 100 70 5 0
ATLANTA 66 49 54 37 52 / 80 100 50 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 57 47 48 32 43 / 100 100 50 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 62 49 51 32 49 / 100 100 50 10 0
COLUMBUS 71 54 58 38 58 / 60 100 50 5 0
GAINESVILLE 58 49 52 35 49 / 100 100 50 10 0
MACON 73 56 58 39 60 / 30 90 70 5 0
ROME 61 48 50 33 49 / 100 100 50 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 66 47 54 35 54 / 70 100 50 5 0
VIDALIA 74 59 65 39 62 / 10 60 80 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HARALSON...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
NWS FFC (ATL) Office - Area Forecast Discussion Archives
