Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KFFC 301456
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1056 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. I HAVE
REGENERATED THE WORDED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION
OF 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LOW EASTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN...INTERMITTENTLY DROPPING SHORTWAVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...WE REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATING DOWN THE FLOW.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT ONE. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THUNDERSTORMS EITHER...WE REMAIN IN
A SUBSIDENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF ONE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ONE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS PW VALUES
DROP TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75". HOT...HUMID...GENERALLY OPPRESSIVE.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALL MODELS REALLY WANT TO FIRE UP THE CONVECTION IN THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY WITH LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF CENTERING THE CONVECTION UP TOWARD VIRGINIA AND THE
GFS/NAM HAVING THE MAX IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2" AGAIN WITH CAPES WELL OVER
2000 J/KG...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
FORECAST TEMPS HAVE IN GENERAL BEEN A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TAKEN A BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV/MET BLEND
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM. MET IS RUNNING COOLER THAN THE MAV ON
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER. LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AS
ITS MASS FIELDS LINE UP BETTER WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND TROUGHINESS EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT WHICH POINT THE GFS BRINGS A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW
MORE ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
DIFFERENCES ARE STILL MINOR...AND LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TDP
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS OVER GA.
MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT MOST LOCAL
TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR
AT AHN AND MCN EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY DIURNAL SCT 4-5KFT CU
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH PROBABLE SHIFT TO NE DIRECTION BY ABOUT 14Z ON
SATURDAY AT ATL.
ATL...CONFIDENCE...HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 101 72 95 72 93 / 10 10 50 40 30
ATLANTA 97 75 95 75 93 / 10 10 40 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 90 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 50 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 97 69 96 72 96 / 10 10 40 30 20
COLUMBUS 100 77 101 76 96 / 10 10 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 96 74 92 73 91 / 10 10 50 40 30
MACON 100 75 98 74 95 / 20 10 40 30 30
ROME 98 69 96 72 96 / 10 10 40 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 96 70 97 72 95 / 10 10 30 30 30
VIDALIA 101 78 100 77 96 / 20 10 40 20 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...STEWART...SUMTER...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...MACON...MARION...MONROE...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CLARKE...GREENE...MADISON...MORGAN...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...TALIAFERRO...WILKES.
&&
$$
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